STOA Scenario Pack

FINANCIAL MODELLING.

Cost estimates, balance sheets, budget approval, actuals, expense, payroll, and total-cost reporting — with refreshed source data, version control, and human validation.

6
Actors
5
Triggers
40
Cards
76
Quality Score
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01 · The Users

The Users

Six stakeholder groups interact with the financial model. Gallagher runs and validates the model; clients use the output for business approval, monitoring, and reporting. Payroll and assignees are downstream data subjects or recipients, not default model users.

Actor · Gallagher
Financial Modelling / Analyst Team
Gallagher's specialist team that builds cost estimates, balance sheets, budget-vs-actual reporting, payroll outputs, expense reporting, and total-cost reports. Uses Gallagher exchange rates and mined source data, but validates assumptions before client-facing reports are released.
Actor · Gallagher
Case Manager / Mobility Coordinator
Owns the operational case context that feeds the estimate. Confirms the move data, validates AI-mined assumptions, tracks whether the client approves or cancels the move, and monitors moving financial parts throughout the assignment lifecycle.
Actor · Gallagher
Account Manager
Keeps the commercial and client-relationship context aligned with the estimate. Helps clarify which clients can view, run, or pay for what-if cost estimates, and ensures approval expectations are clear before service providers are initiated.
Actor · Gallagher
Service Delivery Manager
Oversees how financial outputs are used in live service delivery: provider initiation, expense review, payroll reporting, vendor-cost tracking, balance-sheet visibility, and total-cost reporting across the client's programme.
Actor · Client
Client HR / Mobility Lead
Uses the estimate to secure business approval and monitor the move once approved. May be allowed to view estimates in INNOVA or run what-if estimates depending on the client setup, but Gallagher remains responsible for full model validation.
Actor · To Confirm
Implementation / Platform Configuration
May need temporary access to confirm financial configuration, reports, and client-specific permissions during implementation. This is not an operating role for cost estimates and should be confirmed before build.
02 · Starting Point

Starting Point

What is already true when the scenario begins — the financial state that must be addressed before modelling can deliver value.

Starting Point
Client needs a defensible cost estimate before approval
A potential move needs enough financial detail for the client to budget and secure business approval. Gallagher gathers tax-engine inputs, immigration costs, relocation and shipping costs, compensation, housing, education, policy allowances, intercompany impacts, payroll-relevant data, vendor costs, and exchange rates. If the estimate is approved, services and providers can be initiated; if it is declined, the move is cancelled or deferred. The same baseline then supports actuals, balance sheet, expense, payroll, and total-cost reporting over the assignment lifecycle.
What must be modelled
💰
Compensation
Salary, allowances, annual adjustments
🏠
Housing
Furnished / unfurnished, family size
📊
COLA
Cost-of-living adjustment index
🏛️
Tax Engine Inputs
Approved source data and assumptions
🛡️
Social Security
Home / host contributions, treaties
✈️
Relocation & Shipping
Moving costs, shipping, temp housing
📄
Immigration
Visa fees, legal, permits
🎓
Education
Dependant schooling allowances
⚠️
Policy Allowances
Benefits, caps, exceptions, updates
03 · Triggers

Triggers

What events set the financial model in motion — the moments where estimates, actuals, policy updates, or reporting needs change the financial picture.

Trigger · Case Initiation
Cost estimate needed for business approval
When a client considers a move, Gallagher generates a detailed cost estimate so the client can budget and seek approval from the business. The estimate pulls the latest approved rates, policy allowances, move facts, family profile, tax-engine inputs, immigration, relocation, housing, compensation, and vendor assumptions.
Trigger · Month-End
Payroll, expense, balance sheet, or vendor reporting is due
Financial reporting is not just the initial estimate. Payroll data may need to flow to a client or provider; expense management may need client approval, Gallagher review, and GECO audit; vendor costs and actuals need to roll into programme-level total-cost reporting.
Trigger · Year-End
Annual compensation or allowance adjustment occurs
Long-term assignments often require annual salary, COLA, policy, or allowance updates. Those changes can affect payroll, balance sheet, budget-vs-actual comparisons, and future estimate versions, so they need a tracked update path rather than ad-hoc email handling.
Trigger · Re-estimate
Delay or scenario comparison requires a new estimate
A client may run an estimate, pause the move, then need a refreshed estimate later. They may also want to compare scenarios using latest available data or the original parameters so the comparison stays apples-to-apples.
Trigger · What-if
Client runs a chargeable what-if estimate
A client may generate a generic what-if estimate through a portal before formally initiating services. If the client decides to proceed, the what-if can be converted into a full cost estimate and case initiation path.
04 · Outcomes

Outcomes

What must be true when the financial model is working correctly — the observable results that prove estimates support approval and actuals can be monitored over time.

Expected Outcome
Approval-ready cost estimate report produced
The client receives a report that covers the relevant cost elements, assumptions, currencies, exchange rates, source dates, policy variables, and scenario differences. The report is detailed enough for the client to take away, compare options, and secure business approval.
Expected Outcome
Client can approve, decline, or defer the move
The estimate supports a clear decision. Approved estimates become the baseline for service-provider initiation and actual-vs-projected tracking. Declined estimates are marked cancelled or deferred so teams do not accidentally initiate services.
Expected Outcome
Versioned estimates support fair comparison
Users can run a fresh estimate with the latest data or reuse the original parameters to compare scenarios consistently. Every estimate version keeps its source data, assumptions, exchange rates, and reason for change.
Expected Outcome
Budget versus actuals visible over the lifecycle
As the assignment progresses, actual shipping, relocation, payroll, expense, vendor, and compensation costs can be compared with the approved estimate. Moving costs are expected to vary, so the platform tracks the moving parts rather than promising a fixed variance threshold.
Expected Outcome
Total cost reporting is available at programme level
Clients can see actual vendor costs, payroll-related outputs, expense management reporting, and total programme costs inside the platform. This is a pivotal reporting view because it shows the full cost picture beyond the initial approval estimate.
Expected Outcome
What-if estimates can convert into full service initiation
A chargeable what-if estimate can remain a scenario-only output or be converted into a full cost estimate when the client chooses to move forward with formal initiation.
05 · Guardrails

Guardrails

What must not happen — the boundaries that protect estimate trust, validation, auditability, and downstream financial reporting.

Must Not Happen
Estimate released with outdated or unvalidated data
No cost estimate should be shared if the rates, policy allowances, source data, or mined assumptions are stale or unvalidated. Gallagher exchange rates and source freshness must be visible, and any unknowns must be called out rather than hidden in the numbers.
Must Not Happen
AI-mined financial data used without human validation
Mining agents can make estimates dramatically faster, but a case manager or analyst must validate the result before it informs approval, compliance considerations, payroll, expense, or reporting. AI can collect and structure inputs; it cannot be the final authority on complex mobility financials.
Must Not Happen
Numbers change without version control
No one should overwrite an estimate, balance sheet assumption, payroll output, or reporting value without a new version, reason for change, timestamp, and owner. Users must be able to distinguish latest-data estimates from estimates using original parameters.
Must Not Happen
Assignee sees the full cost estimate by default
The cost estimate is primarily for GMS and the client. The relocating employee may see compensation or allowance information where appropriate, but the full business cost estimate should not be exposed to assignees unless the client explicitly opts into that model.
Must Not Happen
Actuals, projections, and scenario estimates are blended together
Financial reporting must separate approved estimates, what-if concepts, committed costs, actual vendor costs, payroll outputs, and expense data. Blending them creates misleading budget-versus-actual views and weakens audit confidence.
06 · Evidence

Evidence

Observable signals that prove the financial model is useful. The workshop deliberately moved away from a fixed variance promise because assignment costs change daily.

Evidence
Approval-ready estimate report covers all required elements
Measure: Percentage of released estimates with required cost categories, assumptions, source dates, exchange rates, scenario variables, and approval status present.
Target: 100% before client release.
Source: Cost estimate report checklist and approval package.
Validates that the output is complete enough for the client to take away and seek business approval.
Evidence
Scenario comparison shows variables and amounts side by side
Measure: Whether users can compare one scenario against another by policy, home/host location, source data date, parameters, and cost amounts.
Target: Comparison view available for every saved estimate version.
Source: Estimate version history and comparison report.
Validates that users can decide between options rather than reading isolated totals.
Evidence
Expense management review trail has three layers
Measure: Expense items showing client approval, Gallagher review, and GECO audit status.
Target: 100% of reimbursable expense items show review state before payment output.
Source: Expense management workflow and audit log.
Validates that expense outputs are controlled before they flow into payroll or reporting.
Evidence
Payroll and vendor cost reporting is accessible to the client
Measure: Payroll-relevant outputs, vendor costs, and actuals can be viewed or exported by the permitted client role.
Target: Available for approved cases where the client has contracted for that reporting.
Source: Payroll output records, vendor invoices, actual cost ledger, and role-scoped reports.
Validates that financial modelling supports operational reporting, not just the upfront estimate.
Evidence
Total cost report reconciles estimate, actuals, and vendor costs
Measure: Programme-level total cost report includes approved estimates, actual costs, vendor costs, payroll-related outputs, and variance explanation fields.
Target: Available for each active client programme with role-appropriate access.
Source: Total cost report and actual cost ledger.
Validates the client-favourite reporting view: the full programme cost picture in one platform.
07 · Risks

Risks

What could go wrong — concrete financial failure modes surfaced in the workshop.

Risk · Volatility
Moving costs change faster than the estimate can age
Shipping, relocation, compensation, exchange rates, and assignment adjustments can change daily. The risk is not that the estimate misses a fixed target; the risk is that users forget it is an estimate. Mitigation: show source dates, refresh options, actuals comparison, and version history.
Risk · Validation
AI-mined data is wrong or misinterprets complex guidance
Mining agents may miss compliance nuance, policy exceptions, or complex rules. If the case manager does not validate the output, the estimate can look precise while being wrong. Mitigation: require human validation, confidence/freshness display, and alerts for low-confidence or conflicting source data.
Risk · Policy
Policy or allowance changes are not reflected
A client may update an allowance, policy benefit, compensation value, or payroll-relevant field while an assignment is active. If that update does not reach the case manager and financial model, an employee may be paid the wrong amount or a report may be wrong. Mitigation: policy-change events, owner notifications, and affected-estimate impact checks.
Risk · Data Protection
Data sharing rules change during the programme
GDPR, government programmes, client policies, or information-sharing rules may change and affect what can be used, stored, exported, or shared with providers. Mitigation: data-sharing review checkpoints and legal/compliance alerts when source or destination data rules change.
Risk · Ownership
Validation ownership has a gap
If a team member is away or a handoff is unclear, estimate validation, policy updates, or payroll-impacting changes can sit unreviewed. Mitigation: named backup owner, overdue validation alerts, and queue visibility for service delivery managers.
08 · Open Questions

Open Questions

Questions that still need judgment before the financial model can be fully locked down.

Open Question · Product + Commercial
How should what-if cost estimates be packaged and priced?
What-if estimates may be chargeable, client-run, and convertible into full initiation. Confirm who can run them, what fee applies, how long they persist, and what data is required before conversion.
Open Question · Product + GMS
Which data sources define the daily refresh standard?
The desired state is as up-to-date as possible, ideally daily. Define the authoritative sources for exchange rates, tax-engine inputs, policy allowances, vendor rates, compensation updates, and mined source data.
Open Question · Implementation
Does implementation need financial-model access?
Implementation may need temporary access to check configuration and reports, but they are not responsible for running cost estimates. Confirm whether this is a standing role, temporary permission, or no access by default.
Open Question · Product + Service Delivery
How should policy updates feed back into active estimates?
When a client updates allowances, benefits, or payroll-relevant policy details, the system needs to notify owners and flag affected cases. Confirm whether this is automated workflow, AI-assisted monitoring, or manual review with alerts.
09 · Decisions

Decisions

Decisions and working assumptions captured from the workshop.

Decision · Accepted
Cost estimate is primarily for GMS and client approval
The cost estimate supports client budgeting and business approval. The assignee normally does not see the full estimate, though they may see employee-facing compensation or allowance details.
Decision · Accepted
Use mining agents for speed, but require validation
Mining agents should make estimates faster and more current, but every estimate that affects approval, compliance considerations, payroll, expense, or reporting requires human validation before release.
Decision · Accepted
Support one-to-three year LTA projections
Long-term assignment estimates should support year-one, year-two, and year-three views so annual compensation, policy, and allowance changes can be reflected over the assignment period.
10 · Quality

Scenario Quality Score

The STOA quality engine scores scenarios based on completeness, specificity, and risk coverage.

76
out of 100
Promising — aligned to workshop corrections
6
The Users
1
Starting Point
5
Triggers
6
Outcomes
5
Guardrails
5
Evidence
5
Risks
4
Open Questions
3
Decisions
Improvements to reach 85+
Improvement
Define authoritative data feeds
Confirm the source and refresh cadence for exchange rates, policy allowances, tax-engine inputs, vendor rates, compensation, and mined source data.
Improvement
Document what-if estimate flow
Define who can run what-if estimates, how pricing works, how scenarios are retained, and how a scenario converts into a full initiation.
Improvement
Add validation queue proof
Add a concrete check that AI-mined data cannot release to a client-facing estimate until the named human validator has approved it.